Drowning Deaths Dropped 60%—But 15 Million Still at Risk

by Jon Scaccia April 14, 2025

In 2021, more than 274,000 people drowned—enough to fill three NFL stadiums. You probably didn’t hear about most of them.

Maybe because it happened far away. Maybe because it was chalked up as “just an accident.” But what if we told you 15.7 million people are living with the consequences of drowning today? That toddlers are still dying at shocking rates. Climate change is making things worse. And that drowning isn’t just a personal tragedy—it’s a global public health emergency hiding in plain sight.

A groundbreaking new study from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 project unpacks the depth of this problem and explains why it’s still with us despite decades of progress.

Global Drowning Burden: A Silent, Sinking Tragedy

Let’s start with some hope: Drowning deaths have dropped by 60% since 1990. That’s huge. Advances in public health education, better water safety policies, and simple solutions like swimming lessons have saved countless lives.

But here’s the catch: The burden hasn’t disappeared—it’s just moved.

• Children under age 5 remain the most at-risk group globally.
• Men account for most drowning deaths, often linked to occupational hazards or alcohol use.
• Low- and middle-income countries carry the heaviest burden, especially in places like Oceania, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central Asia.

Even countries with rising socioeconomic conditions, like Ukraine or Belarus, still report some of the highest drowning rates in the world. In some island nations, drowning rates top 800 per 100,000 people.

Why Do People Still Drown? It’s Not Just Water.

We tend to think of drowning as a random, unlucky event. But the GBD study shows it’s anything but.

Occupational hazards—especially in fishing or manual labor—account for over 13% of drowning-related disability. That’s a workplace safety issue.

High temperatures (4.6%) and alcohol use (1.7%) also spike drowning risks. That’s about environmental exposure and behavior, not bad luck.

On the flip side, colder climates showed a 10% protective effect, likely because fewer people engage in water-based activities during chillier months.

And when the study looked at how socioeconomic status influences risk, the trend was clear: The lower the development index, the higher the risk—especially for children.

A Tale of Two Worlds: Swimming Pools vs. Floodplains

Let’s take a hypothetical journey.

In Sweden, a 4-year-old falls into a community pool. Lifeguards respond in seconds. She lives.

In Solomon Islands, a 4-year-old falls into a flooded rice field while her mom is working nearby. No one hears her. There’s no fence, no floatation device, no emergency services. She’s gone.

That’s not fiction. It’s the structural reality the GBD study reveals. The global drowning burden is shaped as much by infrastructure as it is by water.

Why This Matters for Public Health

We already have the tools to prevent most drowning deaths. But the success of programs in places like East Asia—where school swimming lessons and safety regulations led to a 73% drop in drowning deaths—haven’t been scaled to the world’s most vulnerable regions.

And here’s the tension: While wealthy countries have improved, many low- and middle-income nations are facing rising environmental risks from floods, cyclones, and poor urban drainage—all of which increase drowning risk.

This isn’t just about saving lives—it’s about breaking cycles of poverty. Every drowning death affects families, communities, and economies. It’s a public health crisis with ripple effects.

What Comes Next: Solutions That Can Float

The GBD team highlights several evidence-based strategies to reduce drowning globally:

• Invest in water safety infrastructure: Barriers, signage, and access to safe water sources can save lives—especially for young children.
• Expand swimming education: Particularly in schools and for at-risk populations.
• Regulate alcohol use near water: Especially in recreational and occupational settings.
• Climate adaptation policies: To protect flood-prone communities.
• Culturally tailored public education: Addressing local norms around supervision, alcohol, and water-based livelihoods.

But progress needs coordination. We need international investment, regional cooperation, and community leadership—especially from people living in high-risk zones.

The Bigger Picture: Drowning and Global Equity

At its core, this study isn’t just about water—it’s about equity.

Why should a child’s chance of surviving near water depend on their ZIP code, GDP, or access to swimming lessons?

The global drowning burden is more than a stat. It’s a mirror of inequality. And unless we see it that way, the most vulnerable will continue to pay the highest price.

Join the Conversation

• What drowning risks exist in your community—and are they being addressed?
• How can we better include cultural practices and local voices in water safety campaigns?
• Should drowning prevention be part of global climate adaptation plans?

Let’s bring this conversation above water. Share your thoughts below or tag us on social media.

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