Social Vulnerability, Race, and Fatal Police Shootings

by Jon Scaccia January 22, 2025

When it comes to understanding fatal police shootings in the United States, a stark reality emerges: who you are and where you live significantly shape your risk. A recent study dives deep into the intersection of social vulnerability, racial composition, and geography, providing crucial insights into the disparities in police-related fatalities. The findings offer not only a grim snapshot of the problem but also a roadmap for policymakers, public health practitioners, and community advocates seeking change.

A Closer Look at Fatal Police Shootings

Each year, over a thousand lives are lost in police shootings across the United States. Between 2015 and 2022 alone, 6,901 individuals died in such incidents, with a disproportionate number being Black and Hispanic men from areas marked by high social vulnerability. This research is the first to analyze these shootings at the ZIP code level, offering a detailed view of the interplay between social vulnerability, race, and place.

The findings? A person living in a high social vulnerability area is over eight times more likely to be fatally shot by police compared to those in low-vulnerability neighborhoods. These disparities are even starker for Black and Hispanic individuals, whose risks increase by 20 and 27 times, respectively, in the highest vulnerability ZIP codes.

What Is Social Vulnerability, and Why Does It Matter?

Social vulnerability refers to a community’s ability to respond to and recover from adversity, encompassing factors like poverty, housing instability, and unemployment. In this study, the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI)—developed by the CDC—categorized ZIP codes into low, medium, and high vulnerability.

Communities with higher SVI often grapple with systemic challenges such as economic deprivation, residential segregation, and limited access to resources. These factors exacerbate the risks of police violence, creating environments where individuals are more likely to experience fatal encounters.

Race and Place: A Deadly Combination

Race compounds the risks associated with social vulnerability. Black and Hispanic individuals are significantly overrepresented among victims of police shootings, even after accounting for population size and crime rates.

Historical policies, like redlining and discriminatory housing practices, have concentrated racial minorities in high-SVI areas, perpetuating cycles of disadvantage. These segregated neighborhoods often face heightened police presence, which, coupled with perceived threats stemming from racial bias, increases the likelihood of violent encounters.

The data also highlights that racially integrated areas—those where no single racial group is dominant—show elevated risks for police shootings of Black and Hispanic residents. This aligns with theories like the “minority threat hypothesis,” which suggests that racially diverse communities may be perceived as destabilizing to societal norms, prompting more aggressive policing.

Unpacking the Data

The study’s findings are rooted in a rigorous analysis of datasets spanning 2015–2022, including Mapping Police Violence and Washington Post Fatal Force data, combined with demographic and social vulnerability metrics from the U.S. Census.

Key takeaways include:

• Social Vulnerability: ZIP codes with high SVI saw a 3.26 times higher rate of fatal police shootings compared to low-SVI areas.
• Racial Composition: Racially minoritized ZIP codes experienced a 1.86 times higher incidence rate than majority-white areas.
• Violent Crime: Areas with higher violent crime rates also reported more fatal police shootings, highlighting the complex relationship between community safety and policing practices.

These findings underscore the multifaceted nature of police violence, which is driven by overlapping factors rather than a single cause.

Practical Implications for Public Health and Policing

Addressing fatal police shootings requires a multi-pronged approach:

1. Reducing Social Vulnerability: Long-term investments in housing, education, and economic opportunities can help break cycles of disadvantage and reduce the systemic risks tied to high-SVI areas.
2. Enhancing Police Training: Policies focusing on de-escalation, implicit bias, and community engagement could mitigate risks during police encounters.
3. Improving Representation: Increasing diversity within police forces and fostering community representation in decision-making can help build trust and reduce tensions.
4. Reforming Gun Laws: Given the link between firearm access and fatal police shootings, policies to regulate gun ownership could save lives.

What’s Next?

While this study sheds light on critical patterns, it also raises new questions. For instance, how can policymakers address the spatial spillover effects of social vulnerability, where conditions in one area influence neighboring communities? What role do other forms of structural inequity, like access to healthcare or education, play in shaping these outcomes?

Future research must also examine the effectiveness of interventions, such as body cameras, civilian oversight boards, and community policing programs, in reducing fatal police shootings.

Join the Conversation

What do you think about these findings?

• How can we ensure that public safety efforts are equitable across all communities?
• What role should public health practitioners play in addressing police violence?
• Are there policies or programs in your community that could serve as models for reducing fatal police encounters?

Let’s work together to create a future where safety doesn’t come at the cost of lives. Share your thoughts in the comments or on social media.

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