What 25 Years of Data Reveal About Concealed Gun Carrying

by Jon Scaccia January 13, 2025

When it comes to understanding the pathways of gun carrying in the United States, research often shines a spotlight on adolescents. But a groundbreaking longitudinal study spanning over 25 years reveals a more nuanced picture—one that distinguishes between the patterns of gun carrying during adolescence and adulthood.

By examining data from Chicago neighborhoods, this study sheds light on how age, exposure to violence, and historical contexts shape gun carrying behavior. Let’s delve into the findings and explore what they mean for public health and policy.

Adolescence vs. Adulthood: Two Pathways, Two Stories

Gun carrying isn’t a uniform behavior; it evolves over time and circumstances. Adolescents who carry guns are often reacting to immediate exposure to violence. For instance, witnessing a shooting or being a victim themselves significantly increases the likelihood of carrying a concealed firearm between the ages of 15 and 21. Yet, for many, this behavior is temporary. By contrast, adults who begin carrying guns often do so persistently, driven less by direct exposure to violence and more by broader perceptions of danger or political motivations.

These patterns, described as “dual pathways,” underscore the stark differences in motivations and persistence of gun carrying:

• Adolescent-Onset Carrying: Often illegal, driven by proximal violence, and short-lived.
• Adult-Onset Carrying: More likely to be legal, persistent, and influenced by societal or political contexts.

Why Do Adults Start Carrying Guns?

While adolescents may carry guns out of necessity or fear in dangerous environments, adults appear to respond to larger societal shifts. The study highlights a significant increase in gun carrying during the COVID-19 pandemic and following high-profile events like the murder of George Floyd. These moments fueled perceptions of societal instability, leading many adults to arm themselves for protection.

Interestingly, adult gun carrying is less tied to direct personal experiences with violence. Instead, it aligns with broader anxieties about safety, distrust in law enforcement, and even political ideologies. This shift points to a cultural narrative around guns as tools of self-defense in uncertain times.

The Role of Race, Gender, and Historical Context

The study also reveals striking demographic trends:

• Race and Ethnicity: Black and Hispanic individuals are more likely to carry guns during adolescence, often in response to living in high-violence areas. However, by age 40, carrying rates converge across racial groups.
• Gender: Men are significantly more likely to carry guns than women, though women’s rates increase sharply in their late 30s.
• Cohort Effects: Individuals born in different decades show distinct patterns of carrying, shaped by the socio-political climate of their youth. For example, those who reached adolescence during the violent crime peaks of the 1990s exhibited higher rates of adolescent gun carrying.

Practical Implications for Public Health and Policy

Understanding these pathways is essential for developing effective interventions. Policies targeting adolescent gun carrying should focus on addressing immediate exposure to violence, such as:

• Community Violence Prevention: Strengthening neighborhood safety and providing safe spaces for youth can reduce the likelihood of adolescents turning to guns for protection.
• Trauma-Informed Care: Offering support to those exposed to violence may help mitigate the psychological drivers of gun carrying.

For adults, interventions may require a broader focus on societal perceptions of safety:

• Gun Safety Campaigns: Highlighting the risks of carrying firearms and promoting safe storage practices.
• Community Policing: Rebuilding trust in law enforcement to reduce the perceived need for personal protection.

The Bigger Picture: Guns, Society, and Public Health

The surge in adult gun carrying during pivotal moments like the pandemic raises a critical question: How do individual decisions to carry firearms shape broader patterns of violence? While the study stops short of answering this directly, it points to a complex interplay between societal events, individual behaviors, and public safety.

With concealed carry becoming increasingly common—31.9% of individuals in the study reported carrying by age 40—understanding these dynamics is more urgent than ever. The findings also highlight the importance of longitudinal data to capture these evolving behaviors over time.

What’s Next?

The study leaves us with unanswered questions that could guide future research:

• How do societal shifts, like changes in gun laws or political climates, influence the long-term patterns of gun carrying?
• Can interventions during adolescence prevent the transition to adult gun carrying?
• What role does access to firearms play in these dual pathways?

By continuing to explore these questions, researchers can help shape policies that address both the immediate and long-term implications of gun carrying.

Join the Conversation

What do you think about the dual pathways of gun carrying? How can communities address the root causes of adolescent gun carrying? And what policies could help mitigate the rise in adult gun carrying? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below or join the discussion on social media using #GunCarryingResearch.