Use this Grant Application Expected Value Calculator to estimate whether applying for a grant is worth the time and cost involved. Enter the grant amount, preparation time, and hourly rate to compare the application’s cost with its potential financial value at several chances of winning.

How to Use This Calculator

Enter the total grant amount, the number of hours required to prepare the application, and the hourly value or cost of the person doing the work. The calculator multiplies the preparation hours by the hourly rate to estimate the total cost of applying.

The results show the application’s expected value at several possible chances of winning. “Expected award value” is the grant amount multiplied by the likelihood of winning. For example, a $100,000 grant with a 5% chance of success has an expected award value of $5,000. The “net expected value” subtracts the cost of preparing the application from that expected award value.

A positive net expected value means the potential return is greater than the estimated application cost at that likelihood.

A negative value means the expected financial return does not cover the preparation cost.

The break-even probability is the minimum estimated chance of winning needed for the application’s expected financial value to equal its preparation cost.

Use these figures as a decision aid rather than a final rule. A grant with a negative financial expected value may still be worthwhile if it offers strategic benefits, strengthens partnerships, supports future applications, or advances an important mission. You should also consider additional expenses, eligibility requirements, reporting obligations, restrictions on how the award may be used, and your realistic likelihood of success.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the expected value of a grant application?

The expected value of a grant application estimates what the opportunity is worth after accounting for the possibility that you may not win. It is calculated by multiplying the total grant amount by your estimated probability of success.

For example, a $100,000 grant with a 5% chance of winning has an expected award value of $5,000:

$100,000 × 5% = $5,000

To calculate the net expected value, subtract the cost of preparing the application:

Net expected value = (Grant amount × probability of winning) − application cost

If preparing the application costs $3,000, the net expected value would be $2,000. This does not mean you will receive $2,000. You will most likely receive either the full grant or nothing. Expected value is a decision-making tool for comparing the potential reward with the resources required to pursue it.

How do I calculate the cost of applying for a grant?

Start by estimating how many hours your team will spend researching, planning, writing, reviewing, budgeting, and submitting the application. Multiply those hours by the hourly cost of the employees, contractors, or consultants completing the work.

For example, if an application takes 40 hours to prepare and the work is valued at $75 per hour, the estimated preparation cost is:

40 hours × $75 = $3,000

For a more complete estimate, include other direct costs such as consultant fees, data collection, financial reviews, legal assistance, travel, design work, printing, and administrative support. You may also want to consider the opportunity cost of taking staff away from fundraising, program delivery, or other grant applications.

What does a positive net expected value mean?

A positive net expected value means that the probability-adjusted value of the grant is greater than the estimated cost of applying. From a strictly financial perspective, this suggests that the opportunity may be worth pursuing.

For example, if a grant has an expected award value of $5,000 and the application will cost $3,000 to prepare, its net expected value is positive $2,000.

A positive result is useful, but it does not guarantee that you will win or that the grant is a good organizational fit. Before applying, confirm that your organization is eligible, the proposed work supports your mission, the award will cover the true cost of the project, and your team can meet the grant’s reporting and compliance requirements.

What is the break-even probability?

The break-even probability is the minimum chance of winning needed for the expected award value to equal the cost of preparing the application. At this probability, the net expected value is zero.

It is calculated using this formula:

Break-even probability = Application cost ÷ Grant amount

If an application costs $3,000 to prepare and the grant is worth $100,000, the break-even probability is 3%. If you believe your organization has more than a 3% chance of winning, the application has a positive financial expected value. If your estimated chance is below 3%, its financial expected value is negative.

This calculation can be especially helpful when comparing several grant opportunities competing for limited staff time.

Should I avoid grants with a negative expected value?

Not necessarily. A negative expected value means the probability-adjusted financial return is lower than the estimated cost of applying. It is a signal to examine the opportunity more carefully, not an automatic reason to reject it.

Applying may still make sense when the opportunity offers important nonfinancial or long-term benefits. These could include strengthening a relationship with a funder, developing a reusable proposal, building a partnership, gaining helpful feedback, increasing your organization’s visibility, or positioning a project for future funding.

You should also consider how closely the grant aligns with your mission, whether the project would proceed without the funding, and whether the award would cover implementation and reporting costs. If the financial expected value is negative and there are few strategic benefits, your organization’s time may be better spent on a stronger opportunity.