Does Economic Growth Really Improve Health? New Evidence Says “It Depends”

A public health planner reviews the latest economic report: GDP is up, unemployment is steady, and investment is flowing. On paper, things look good. But emergency departments are busier, chronic disease rates remain stubborn, and disability claims keep climbing. The question lingers in the background: if the economy is growing, why doesn’t health seem to be keeping pace?

A new study published in Frontiers in Public Health takes that question seriously. Instead of assuming that economic growth automatically improves health, the researchers ask a harder one: does growth sometimes make health worse before it makes it better? Their answer is yes—and the timing matters.

The Big Idea: The Health Kuznets Curve

The study tests the Health Kuznets Curve (HKC) hypothesis in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2021. The HKC suggests a non-linear relationship between income and health. In the early stages of development, growth can increase health burdens due to pollution, stress, lifestyle changes, and weak health systems. Only after a certain income threshold does further growth begin to reduce disease and disability.

Think of it as a curve: health outcomes worsen as income rises—until they don’t.

What makes this study stand out is how health is measured. Rather than relying only on life expectancy or mortality, the researchers use Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)—a gold-standard metric that captures both premature death and years lived with illness or disability. They also break DALYs into:

• Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from early death
• Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) from non-fatal conditions

This allows for a more complete picture of population health.

What the Data Showed—and Why It Matters

Using a sophisticated method called quantile ARDL, the authors examined how growth affects health under different levels of health burden, not just on average. That distinction matters for policy.

Key Findings at a Glance

1. Growth initially worsens health outcomes. Across all levels of disease burden, rising income was associated with higher DALYs at first.

2. There is a clear turning point. Once GDP per capita reached roughly $20,500–$21,500, the relationship flipped. Beyond this point, further economic growth reduced overall health burden.

3. Disability improves before mortality. Economic growth reduced non-fatal health burdens (YLDs) earlier than it reduced premature deaths (YLLs). In practical terms, countries may see fewer disabilities before they see longer lives.

4. Pollution and unemployment consistently harm health. Greenhouse gas emissions and unemployment worsened health outcomes across all income levels and health conditions.

5. Globalization cuts both ways. Global economic integration helped reduce health burden in high-burden contexts, but in healthier populations it was sometimes linked to worse outcomes—suggesting uneven benefits.

What This Means in Practice

For public health leaders and policymakers, this study offers several actionable lessons.

For Health Departments and Ministries

• Do not equate GDP growth with health improvement. Track DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs alongside economic indicators.
• Expect lagged health gains. Improvements in disability may appear before reductions in mortality.
• Target early-stage growth risks. Pollution control and labor protections matter most before the turning point.

For Environmental and Labor Policy

• Climate policy is health policy. Greenhouse gas emissions had a direct, negative impact on health across all scenarios.
• Employment quality matters. Unemployment consistently worsens health outcomes, regardless of income level.

For Development and Finance Agencies

• Timing matters for investment. Health system strengthening is especially critical before economies cross the HKC threshold.
• Globalization needs guardrails. Trade and openness can help or harm health depending on who benefits.

Why This Changes the Conversation About Growth and Health

For decades, public health planning has treated economic growth as an unquestioned good. This research complicates that story—in a productive way. Growth can enable better health, but only after societies invest in environmental protection, employment security, and health systems.

The takeaway is not pessimism. It is precision.

Conversation Starters

• How does your agency measure health gains alongside economic growth?
• What policies could reduce health harms before reaching the growth threshold?
• Does this challenge how you think about “development success”?

Economic growth is powerful—but health does not automatically come with it. Evidence like this helps us decide when growth helps, when it hurts, and what we can do in between.